The International Monetary Fund first highlighted the missing funds in Angola’s fiscal accounts for 2007-10 in an October 27 report on the country’s economic performance.

But during a recent IMF mission to Luanda, IMF officials were able to track most of the unaccounted $32 billion, which is equivalent to 25 percent of Angola’s gross domestic product.

The Fund said the government was investigating the issue and was preparing a more comprehensive analysis together with the IMF for release later in the year.

“Preliminary data indicate that quasi-fiscal operations undertaken by the state oil company on behalf of the government, financed out of oil revenues but not recorded in the budgetary accounts, can explain a large part of the discrepancy,” the IMF said in a statement.

Angola is Africa’s second-largest oil producer after Nigeria. Oil revenues represent over 95 percent of the country’s export income and around 45 percent of GDP.

Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos’ government has long been accused of mismanaging oil revenues and doing too little to fight graft in a country in which an estimated two-thirds of a population of 18 million live on less than $2 per day.

Under an IMF stand-by agreement, the Fund granted Angola a loan of $1.4 billion in 2009 to stabilize its balance of payments after an abrupt drop in net foreign reserves in 2008. The program is also intended to improve transparency in the government’s accounting process.

The country’s economy minister Abrahao Gourgel said on Monday the government would not request a new IMF loan when the current agreement expires at the end of the year.

“We don’t intend to restore to a new line from the IMF,” he told reporters on a visit to Lisbon.

Mauro Mecagni, the IMF mission chief to Angola, said in a statement that 2012 Angolan macroeconomic prospects are “broadly favorable” with new oil fields expected to boost output above 1.8 million barrels a day.

Mecagni said the outlook for Angola was sensitive to developments in world oil prices. He said the government was committed to increase its foreign reserves to cushion a possible fall in oil revenue should prices

Reuters.

The election will be only the third in oil-producing Angola after it gained independence from Portugal in 1975, Dos Santos said in an end-of-year speech broadcast by state TV channel TPA, monitored by Reuters in Lisbon.

Angola’s political parties earlier this month reached a deal on a new electoral law, ending months of negotiations over who will organise the election.

The main opposition party UNITA had previously accused the MPLA of trying to control the election by stripping the National Elections Committee of power and eroding its independence.

Dos Santos, who has held power since 1979, did not confirm whether he would lead his ruling MPLA party in a re-election bid, though last month HE signalled he would run by saying he was ready for any mission his party selects for him.

“Some parties have already announced the candidate they will support to run for the presidency in the election, while other are yet to make the announcement, as is natural,” he said.

Dos Santos last year strengthened his grip on power with a new constitution which stipulates the person at the top of the list of the party that wins a parliamentary election becomes president, without need for a direct presidential ballot.

The president has faced unprecedented protest from a burgeoning youth movement calling for his resignation this year.

“Radical processes provoke rupture and great disorientation with grave social consequences, while changes through democratic processes, through dialogue and within the law guarantee social stability,” he said.

Dos Santos’ MPLA won a 27-year civil war against UNITA and then crushed the opposition in a 2008 election, obtaining 82 percent of the votes.

His administration has long been accused of mismanaging the country’s oil revenues, avoiding public scrutiny and doing too little to fight corruption and widespread poverty in Africa’s second largest oil producer after Nigeria.

Reuters.

The Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA), which is the country’s central bank, said in a statement on Monday that November’s inflation compares to a rate of 15.89 percent in the same month in 2010.

The fall was the 12th in the last 13 months and puts inflation at its lowest on records that started in 1991, according to figures on the finance ministry’s website.

The central bank added that rising prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages have contributed most to the inflation index in 2011.

President Jose Eduardo dos Santos’ government wants to cut inflation to 12 percent this year and to 10 percent in 2012.

Some analysts warn, however, that Angola may struggle to contain inflation as its economy shows strong domestic demand, combined with limited access to imported goods due to poor logistics.

Still, Central bank Governor Jose de Lima Massano has been praised by the IMF and credit ratings agencies for executing a policy which has reduced inflation, kept the kwanza currency stable and boosted foreign reserves this year.

Massano introduced a benchmark interest rate in October to guide monetary policy and reach price stability.

The central bank said its monetary policy committee held its monthly meeting on Monday and decided to maintain the benchmark rate at 10.5 percent for the third month in a row.

The central bank also introduced the Luanda Interbank Offered Rate (LUIBOR) – an average of the interest rates charged by commercial banks to each other – in October to help lower the rates commercial banks charge on loans.

“We note that (in November) the rates charged by the commercial banks in credit operations also showed a falling pattern in line with that of the inflation rate,” the BNA said.

Reuters.

Oil output in Angola, which is Africa’s second-largest crude producer after Nigeria, has come in below estimates this year due to technical problems and field maintenance, forcing the government to slash its economic growth forecast to 3.4 percent from 7.6 percent.

However, it expects oil output — which represents over 90 percent of the country’s export revenues — to recover next year as fields come back on line and new projects begin production.

“Compared with the budgets of the last three years, this budget proposal assumes a more promising scenario for the national economy,” Finance Minister Carlos Alberto Lopes told parliament during a session broadcast by state TV channel TPA.

According to the draft budget, total oil production for 2012 is forecast at 663 million barrels, up from 584 million barrels this year and reaching the highest level since 2009 when the country produced 1.8 mbpd. Oil minister Jose de Vasconcelos said the country was producing 1.75 mbpd in late October.

Still, the government said it has used a “conservative” assumption for oil prices next year, putting the mark at $77 per barrel, lower than the $95 it had estimated for this year and the current Brent crude market price of around $112.

The cautious approach is designed to ensure it can execute public spending plans, the government said.

The administration is aiming for a balanced budget in 2012 after an expected surplus this year, as it plans to step up spending on health and education.

Revenues are forecast at around 4.42 trillion kwanza, with government spending matching that value.

Oil has helped Angola pick up the pieces after a long civil war ended in 2002 but reliance on the commodity has left it vulnerable to oil price drops and global economic weakness.

Angola’s economy was hit hard when crude prices began to drop in 2008 with its growth rate slowing sharply to 2.4 percent in 2009 after five years of double-digit expansion.

Finance Minister Lopes said the government’s forecasts for 2012 take into account uncertainty in the world economy.

“(The positive scenario) takes into account the solid position of our foreign reserves and public finances, as well as good results in controlling inflation,” Lopes said.

“But there are also provisions for risks linked to current uncertainties about the outcome of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the performance of the U.S. economy,” he added.

The ruling MPLA party’s large majority approved the main guidelines of the budget bill, with the final vote set for mid-December. The measure is likely to sail through parliament.

Reuters.

La visite du président Dos Santos, c’est le signe d’une nouvelle ère dans les relations entre les deux pays. Parce que le président angolais ne fait pas tant de visites officielles que cela, et parce que pour la première fois depuis son accession au pouvoir en 1979, il vient chez le voisin sud africain.

Il rend la politesse à son homologue sud-africain, Jacob Zuma, qui est allé à Luanda l’année dernière. Cela avait été le premier signe de détente entre les deux pays.

C’est que l’Afrique du Sud est à la recherche d’investissements, et que l’Angola est à la recherche de liquidités.

Les deux puissances ont des intérêts complémentaires, dans le domaine pétrolier par exemple. L’Angola est l’un des principaux producteurs de brut du continent, mais a peu de capacités de raffinage, en Afrique du Sud c’est l’inverse.

De quoi oublier les tensions diplomatiques de ces dernières années :

- Lorsque l’Afrique du Sud du temps de l’apartheid soutenait l’Unita de Savimbi contre le MPLA de Dos Santos.
- Quand Nelson Mandela et Thabo Mbeki prônaient une solution négociée en Angola contre l’avis du même Dos Santos. Sans parler plus récemment des divergences de vue sur le Zimbabwe.

RFI.

Secretary of State for Human Rights Bento Bembe condemned the attack as the work of “terrorists”.

In January, Cabinda independence fighters attacked a bus carrying the Togo national football team to an African Cup of Nations match in the province, killing two people and leaving nine others wounded.

Flec (Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda) has been fighting for three decades for independence in Cabinda, an area separated from Angola by a strip of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Despite being rich in oil, the region is one of the poorest in the country.

BBC.

The leader of the small and divided Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda, Henrique N’zita Tiago, said his group’s fight was no longer viable and offered to start talks with the Angolan government in Portugal’s capital Lisbon.

FLEC, which has been fighting for Cabinda’s independence from Angola for over 30 years, grabbed world headlines in January when it staged a gun attack on the Togo national soccer team during the African Nations Cup in Angola.

“If FLEC leaders say they want to talk with the government we say we are open to that,” Antonio Bento Bembe, Angola’s secretary of state for human rights and president of the Cabindan Dialogue Forum, told Reuters.

“But that does not mean those responsible for the recent terrorist attacks will not be brought to justice.”

END OF WAR IN CABINDA

FLEC’s 82-year-old leader N’zita Tiago, who is thought to be living in Paris, and the head of the splinter group FLEC Renovada, Alexandre Builo Tati, said in separate interviews with the Portuguese news agency Lusa that their war in Cabinda was over.

“No, we don’t want war in Cabinda. The Portuguese government should advise the Angolan government or its leaders to start a dialogue. I would like those talks to begin in Lisbon,” Tiago said.

The Angolan government branded FLEC a terrorist organisation after it claimed responsibility for the January 8 ambush of a bus carrying the Togo team, in which it killed two members of the soccer team’s delegation.

Angolan authorities also issued arrest warrants for FLEC’s leaders, many of whom are thought to be in Paris. Several prominent figures in Cabindan society, including a university professor, a human rights activist and a priest, have been arrested.

It is not the first time FLEC and the government have tried to settle their differences.

In 2006, FLEC rebels under Bento Bembe, who is now in the government, signed a peace deal to integrate former rebels into the army and give Cabinda more oil money, but the agreement was rejected by FLEC’s Paris-based president N’zita Tiago.

Some Cabindans now hope the Angolan government and FLEC’s willingness to talk can help end the conflict.

“We cannot undermine FLEC and the government’s willingness to enter into talks,” said Martinho Nombo, a former vice governor of Cabinda who is now a lawyer and professor.

“Everyone in Cabinda wants a solution that will put an end to their suffering.”

Angola, a former Portuguese colony, rivals Nigeria as Africa’s biggest oil producer.

Chevron Corp and Total SA, among others, are involved in offshore oil exploration in Cabinda, which is separated from Angola by a strip of land belonging to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and accounts for over half of the oil produced in the African nation.

Reuters.

L’Angola revient de loin comme l’explique la chargée de l’éducation pour l’Unicef, le Fonds des Nations unies pour l’enfance, présente dans le pays depuis 2007. Elle se rappelle de la situation d’urgence à son arrivée :

« Quand je suis arrivée il ya un peu plus de trois ans, les gens parlaient encore de la situation post-conflit. Notre stratégie à l’Unicef s’était focalisée sur la construction d’écoles, et sur le recrutement de nouveaux professeurs. Aujourd’hui, les enfants sont beaucoup plus nombreux sur les bancs des écoles, mais les défis sont immenses en terme de qualité d’éducation.

Un nombre encore insuffisant d’élèves va jusqu’au bout du cycle primaire, et le pays manque encore de professeurs, surtout dans les régions les plus reculées. Tout d’abord les salaires sont très bas, ce qui n’est pas motivant pour les professeurs. Et puis, ils ne veulent pas aller dans les régions rurales à cause du manque de transport et des conditions de vie. »

Un autre défi de l’Unicef en Angola est d’impliquer les parents dans l’éducation de leurs enfants. Mais si la plupart d’entre eux sont conscients de l’importance de l’école, ils vivent encore dans des conditions trop précaires pour pouvoir s’en préoccuper vraiment.

RFI.

Francisco Jacinto, leader of the country’s largest union CGSILA, said the arrears and a slowdown in the construction sector were the two main reasons behind the lay-offs.

“Thousands of people are being laid off every month because the government has failed to pay the building firms,” Jacinto said in an interview with Reuters.

“I don’t see an end to the lay-offs until the government starts paying.”

The government has vowed to begin settling the areas this month. Finance Minister Spokesman Bastos de Almeida said the government was working to settle the arrears with the building firms.

Jacinto said that Brazil’s Odebrecht, the biggest foreign construction firm in Angola, had cut its 27,000-strong workforce by more than half in the last year and had recently warned him that more lay-offs would follow.

“Yesterday the firm told us that it was letting go another 2,095 workers. It says it needs to cut costs and I’m afraid there is not much we can do,” he said.

A senior Odebrecht official, who asked not to be named, confirmed that more layoffs would take place in coming weeks.

Angola, which depends on oil for 90 percent of its income, began delaying payments to the firms last year after the global economic recession triggered a slump in oil prices.

Brazil’s Camargo Correia, along with Portuguese building firms Mota Engil, Teixeira Duarte and Soares da Costa, who were hired by the government to rebuild infrastructure destroyed by a civil war that ended in 2002, have all suffered from the late payments, Jacinto said.

“There isn’t one company in Angola that hasn’t laid off workers. Either because the government suspended some projects or simply because they haven’t received money from the state,” said Jacinto.

Urban Planning and Construction Minister Jose da Silva Ferreira said last announced last week that the government would start paying off the arrears in April.

The African nation has seen its economy improve significantly this year on the back of a rebound in oil prices and is seeking its first credit rating before it issues up to $4 billion in bonds to foreign investors.

Analysts say that by settling the arrears, which industry sources say are much higher than the $2 billion the government announced in July 2009, will have a positive impact on Angola’s credit rating and the sale of the international bonds

Reuters.

The rain, which began early on Monday, left dozens of Angolans homeless after floods washed away their huts in a city that is home to more than one-third of the country’s 16.5 million people.

“Most of the victims died after their homes collapsed from the heavy rain. They were living in illegal makeshift huts around the city centre,” vice-governor Bento Soito told Reuters.

Every year thousands of people lose their homes to floods in Angola due to flooding caused by seasonal rains.

Reuters.